Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 88.5%; our estimate: 90%
• • Positive EV but small (≈1.7% ROI) given current odds

Pros

• + Current price (1.13) is slightly above our break-even threshold (1.111) given our probability
• + Low variance expected in matches with heavy favorites

Cons

• - Edge is very slim and sensitive to small errors in our probability estimate
• - No external form, surface, or injury data available to corroborate the estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.13 = 88.5%) to our conservative estimated true probability of 90%. With no additional injury or form data available, we assume the market already reflects a strong mismatch; we apply a small conservative edge (≈1.5 percentage points) in favor of the home pair based on the very short market price and typical doubles-match dynamics. At our estimate the bet has a small positive edge: EV = 0.90 * 1.13 - 1 = 0.017 (1.7% ROI). Given the lack of external information, we remain cautious and only recommend the heavy favorite because current odds exceed the minimum required price implied by our probability.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the home pair (odds 1.13) indicating a perceived mismatch
• • No reported injuries or news in the available data, so we avoid discounting probability
• • Conservative small edge over the market (≈1.5 percentage points) to account for typical doubles experience advantages