P. Isaro/N. Kaliyanda Poonacha vs N. Lammons/J. Rojer

Highlights

• • Away implied probability at 1.26 is ~79.4%
• • Our estimated true probability for away is 78.0% → slightly negative EV

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite, reducing model uncertainty about outright strength
• + Bookmaker prices are available and widely accessible

Cons

• - No external data on recent form, injuries, or H2H to justify diverging from market
• - Favorite must be >79.37% to be +EV at 1.26; our conservative estimate is below that

Details

We estimate the away pair (N. Lammons/J. Rojer) is the stronger side but not by enough to justify the short market price. The market decimal 1.26 implies ≈79.4% win probability; our conservative estimated true probability for the away side is 78.0%, which yields a slightly negative expected return at the quoted price. The home underdog at 3.50 would require a true win probability ≥28.57% to be +EV; based on the information gap (no form, injury, or H2H data) we conservatively assess the home pair’s true win probability below that threshold. Given those comparisons, neither side offers positive expected value at the current prices.

Key factors

• • No available recent form, injury, or head-to-head data — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Market strongly favors the away pair (1.26), implying ~79.4% probability
• • Our conservative estimate (78.0%) is below the bookmaker-implied threshold for positive EV