P. Isaro/N. Kaliyanda Poonacha vs P. Kotov/D. Yevseyev

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.14) = ~87.7%; our estimate = 82%
• • Required odds for value on home would be <1.14 only if true win prob >87.7%

Pros

• + Clear market consensus that the home pair are heavy favorites
• + Short line minimizes variance if one were simply managing bankroll, though not +EV

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.14) offers negative expected value versus our conservative estimate
• - Insufficient information to justify moving our true probability above the market-implied level

Details

We compare the bookmaker prices to a conservative assessment of the matchup. The market prices (Home 1.14, Away 5.20) imply a very strong favorite: home implied probability is ~87.7%. Given the limited match-specific data and no additional evidence of major advantages (surface, injuries, or notable form swings), we adopt a conservative true-win probability for the home side of 82%. At that level the home side does not offer value (to be profitable we would need >87.7% confidence). The away side would need an implied probability better than our assessed 18% (i.e. decimal odds >5.556) to be +EV; current away odds (5.20) are short of that. Therefore we do not recommend a bet because neither side offers positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors home (implied ~87.7%)
• • We apply a conservative true probability (82%) due to lack of additional match data
• • Away would require >5.556 to be +EV versus our estimated 18% chance