Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for away is ~75.2% (1.33)
• • Required fair odds for our estimate would be ≥1.429; current 1.33 is too short

Pros

• + Conservative modelling reduces the risk of overconfidence in absence of data
• + We evaluated both sides and confirmed neither offers positive EV

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in our estimate
• - If additional info (injury, lineup, form) becomes available, value picture could change

Details

We have no external form, surface, or injury data and therefore apply conservative priors. The market prices imply ~75.2% for the away pair (1/1.33) and ~32.8% for the home pair (1/3.05) after converting decimals to raw probabilities. Being conservative, we estimate the away true win probability at 70.0% (0.70) — lower than the market-implied 75.2% to account for uncertainty and bookmaker margin. At that estimate, the minimum fair decimal odds for the away side are 1.429, but the market offers 1.33, which yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.70*1.33 - 1 = -0.069). The home side under our conservative estimate (30.0%) also offers negative EV at 3.05 (EV = 0.30*3.05 - 1 = -0.085). Because neither side provides positive EV at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we use conservative priors
• • Market strongly favors the away team at 1.33 (implied ~75.2%)
• • Our conservative true-probability estimate (70%) does not justify the offered odds (requires ≥1.429)