Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.19) = ~84.0%; our conservative estimate = 78%
• • Home needs >4.545 to be +EV; current home price 4.30 yields negative EV

Pros

• + Clear breakeven threshold for home (4.545) lets us know exact value target
• + Conservative probability estimates reduce chance of false positives in absence of data

Cons

• - No match-level data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Market could move quickly; current edges may disappear

Details

We compare the market prices to our conservative risk-adjusted win probability estimates given there is no match-specific research available. The market gives the away pair a decimal price of 1.19 (implied probability 84.0%) and the home pair 4.30 (implied probability 23.3%). Conservatively we estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 22% (0.22) and for the away pair at 78% (0.78). At a 22% win probability the home pair requires decimal odds greater than 4.545 to be +EV; at the current home price of 4.30 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.22 * 4.30 - 1 = -0.054). The away price is also priced too short relative to our 78% estimate (EV ≈ -0.072 at 1.19). Because neither side shows positive expected value at the quoted prices, we do not recommend a bet. To find value on the home side one would need prices ≥ 4.545.

Key factors

• • No match-specific research or injury/form information available
• • Market implies heavy favoritism to the away pair (≈84% implied)
• • Conservative estimate gives the home pair ~22% chance, requiring >4.545 for value