P. Lopez/S. Rokusek vs M. Barry/G. Da Silva Fick

Highlights

• • Market strongly favors away at implied ~90.9%
• • Our conservative estimate of away win probability is ~70%, so current odds offer no value

Pros

• + We base the projection on documented recent form showing weakness in M. Barry's results
• + Conservative probability accounts for singles-to-doubles uncertainty and limited data

Cons

• - Very limited research on doubles pairings and opponents reduces forecast precision
• - If partner G. Da Silva Fick is substantially stronger than available records suggest, our estimate could be too low

Details

We assess the market price (Away 1.10 -> implied ~90.9%) as overstating certainty. M. Barry's available profile shows a weak recent singles record (10-21 career, poor recent form) and no reliable doubles-specific data; that argues for caution rather than near-certain selection. Given the lack of information on both pairs and the difference between singles and doubles performance, we estimate the away side's true win probability at ~70%. At the quoted 1.10, the bet has a negative expected value (EV = -0.23 for a 1-unit stake), so no value exists at current prices. To justify a bet on the away side with our probability estimate, we would need decimal odds of at least 1.429 (implied probability <=70%).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (~90.9%) is far higher than our estimated true probability (~70%).
• • M. Barry's documented singles form is poor (10-21) with recent losses, reducing confidence despite partner unknowns.
• • Insufficient doubles-specific data and unknown strength of both pairs introduces material uncertainty.