P. Martinez/J. Munar vs A. Holmgren/J. Ingildsen

Highlights

• • Market undervalues the favorites by ~3.4 percentage points
• • Conservative assumptions still produce a positive EV at current price

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the publicly available price
• + Clear favorite status assumed despite limited data

Cons

• - Research was limited (no surface/form/injury/H2H data) — more uncertainty
• - Doubles outcomes can be swingy; edge is modest (~4.5% ROI)

Details

We estimate P. Martinez/J. Munar to be clear favorites despite limited external data. The market price of 1.34 implies a win probability of ~74.6%, while our conservative true-win estimate is 78%. That gap (78% vs 74.6%) produces positive expected value: EV = 0.78 * 1.34 - 1 = ~0.045. We applied a conservative margin given unknown surface, recent form, injuries, and no H2H data; even with that caution the available odds appear to slightly understate the home pair's chances. Therefore we recommend the home side only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted decimal price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.34 = 74.6%) vs our conservative estimate (78%)
• • Lack of injury/form/H2H info forces a conservative probability but still shows edge
• • Doubles matches can be volatile, so small edges are meaningful but risk remains