P. Matuszewski/P. Nouza vs R. Burruchaga/A. Pellegrino
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given scarce information and a conservative 88% true-win estimate for the favorite, the offered 1.11 does not provide value; we therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market favorite at 1.11 implies ~90.1% win chance
- • Our conservative estimate is 88.0%; required price for +EV is ≥1.136
Pros
- + Heavy market favorite suggests low variance outcome probability
- + If additional info (injury/withdrawal) emerges it could change value quickly
Cons
- - Offered favorite price (1.11) is shorter than our conservative fair price
- - No match-specific data available increases uncertainty in our estimation
Details
We have no external research available and must be conservative. The market strongly favors the home pair at 1.11 (implied ~90.1%). Without surface, form, injury, or H2H data, we assign a cautious true-win probability for P. Matuszewski/P. Nouza of 88.0% based on typical heavy-favourite corrections for incomplete information. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be about 1.136; the offered 1.11 is shorter than our required price and therefore offers negative expected value. Conversely the away price 6.00 would require an implied win probability >16.67% to be profitable, but given the market gap and lack of supporting information we do not project the underdogs that high. Because the current favorite price demands an estimated win probability above our conservative 88% to be +EV, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No external match/fitness/form data available — must use conservative priors
- • Market price (home 1.11) implies ~90.1% — higher than our conservative 88% estimate
- • Small difference between our probability and market implies negative EV on the favorite