P. latcenko/S. Lansere vs N. Bains/R. Bhosale

Highlights

• • Away 1.67 implies ~59.9% market probability vs our 53% estimate
• • Negative EV at current favorite price (≈ -11.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Market price available and clearly indicates a favorite
• + Conservative probability guards against overbetting in data-sparse situations

Cons

• - No match-level data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to refine probabilities
• - Doubles matches are inherently more variable — raises model uncertainty

Details

We reviewed the available market prices (Home 2.10, Away 1.67) and, with no external form, surface, injury or head-to-head data available, we apply a conservative, uncertainty-adjusted estimate. We estimate the away pair (N. Bains/R. Bhosale) have a ~53.0% chance to win. At the current away price (1.67) that implies a negative edge (EV = 0.53 * 1.67 - 1 ≈ -0.115), so the market overprices the favorite relative to our conservative belief. Conversely, the home price (2.10) would require a substantially lower true win probability (~47.6%) to be profitable; our assessment does not support that edge either. Given the lack of corroborating information and the negative expected value at posted odds, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent form, surface or injury data available — high uncertainty
• • Market favors the away team at 1.67 (implied ~59.9%) which appears optimistic versus our conservative 53% estimate
• • Doubles outcomes are volatile and without matchup detail we avoid speculative edges