P. Harper/J. Monday vs S K R. Ganta/R. Matsuda

Highlights

• • Market-implied win probability for home = ~82.6%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate = 72%, producing negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear market favorite indicated by 1.21 price
• + If additional positive info emerges (injury to opponents, strong form) value could appear

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data increases estimation uncertainty
• - Current price requires an unusually high true-win probability (>82%) to be profitable

Details

We have no external data beyond the quoted prices, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market gives the home pair an implied win probability of ~82.6% (1/1.21). Given the lack of form, surface, injury, and H2H data for these doubles teams, we downgrade the favorite to a realistic probability of 72% to allow for typical variance in doubles and small-market pricing inefficiencies. At that estimate the home side is over-priced by the market (market implies 82.6% but our estimate is 72%), producing a negative expected value at the current 1.21 price. Therefore we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite at current odds. If better odds become available (>= 1.389) the home side would represent value.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury or H2H data available — higher uncertainty
• • Market implies 82.6% for home; we conservatively estimate 72% probability
• • Doubles matches have greater variance; heavy favorites often overpriced in small markets