Highlights

• • Market price implies ~65.8% for home; our estimate ~58%
• • Limited data on home pairing increases uncertainty and downside risk

Pros

• + Away players have hard-court experience and one has a solid overall record (Jie Cui)
• + Both away players have recent match data available, allowing a conservative form read

Cons

• - Recent losses for both away players indicate inconsistent form
• - No provided performance data for the home pairing prevents confident value identification

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.52 -> implied win ~65.8%) to our assessment based solely on the provided research. The available data covers the two away players: Jie Cui has an overall positive hard-court record (40-31) but both away players show recent losses at local Challenger events, suggesting form inconsistency. We have no performance data for the home pairing (P. Isaro/N. Kaliyanda Poonacha) in the provided sources, which increases uncertainty. Balancing the away duo's mixed recent form against the lack of information on the home pair, we estimate the home team’s true win probability at ~58%, well below the market-implied ~65.8%. At the posted home price (1.52) this produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing the favorite at current prices.

Key factors

• • Research only contains profiles and recent results for the two away players (Jie Cui, Rigele Te); no data provided for home pairing
• • Away players show mixed form with recent losses at local Challenger events on hard courts
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.52) ~65.8% exceeds our conservative true estimate (~58%), creating negative EV