P. Lopez/S. Rokusek vs E. Simmons/A. Smith
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge backing the home pair at 1.97 based on A. Smith's weak recent form; the margin is slim and sensitive to limited data on partners and surface.
Highlights
- • Home decimal 1.97 implies ~50.8% — we estimate true home chance ~52%
- • Estimated EV is small but positive (~+2.4% per unit)
Pros
- + Market slightly misprices the away side given A. Smith's form
- + Current home price is above the breakeven threshold (1.923) for our estimate
Cons
- - Information on partners and doubles-specific form is missing, increasing model risk
- - Edge is small and could be erased by small errors in probability estimation
Details
We estimate value on the home pair (P. Lopez/S. Rokusek) because the available player-level research shows A. Smith (part of the away side) has a weak recent record (10-22 overall this season with consistently poor recent results on hard courts), which lowers the expected win probability for the away team. The market currently prices the home side at 1.97 (implied ~50.8%) and the away side at 1.76 (implied ~56.8%). After adjusting for A. Smith's poor form and the uncertainty around doubles chemistry, we estimate the true win probability for the home side at 52.0%, which makes the current home price (1.97) slightly favorable: EV = 0.52 * 1.97 - 1 = +0.024 (≈ +2.4% ROI). This edge is small and sensitive to unknowns (partner form, surface, matchup specifics), so we recommend the home side only because the current decimal price exceeds the minimum required to realize positive EV.
Key factors
- • A. Smith's poor season-level record (10-22) and recent losing form
- • Market prices favor the away side despite the identified weakness
- • Limited info on doubles partners and chemistry increases uncertainty