P. Tsitsipas/S. Tsitsipas vs R. Matos /M. Melo

Highlights

• • Market favours the away team at 1.54 (implied 64.9%)
• • Our conservative estimate for the away team is 60%, which produces negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + We avoided overconfidence in the absence of surface/form/injury/H2H information
• + Clear EV calculation demonstrates why the market price is not exploitable under conservative assumptions

Cons

• - Lack of detailed match-specific information increases uncertainty
• - If inside information or recent form favors one team, our conservative model may understate value

Details

No external data were available, so we apply conservative assumptions and compare them to the market-implied probabilities. The market prices imply the away pair (Matos/Melo) at 1.54 → implied 64.9% and the Tsitsipas pair at 2.33 → implied 42.9%. Given typical doubles dynamics and the market favouring the specialist pairing, we conservatively estimate the away side's true win probability at 60.0% (0.60) and the home side at 40.0% (0.40). At these estimates the away side at 1.54 yields EV = 0.60*1.54 - 1 = -0.076 (negative) and the home side at 2.33 yields EV = 0.40*2.33 - 1 = -0.068 (negative). Because neither side shows positive expected value versus our conservative true-probability estimates, we do not recommend a bet. We also note increased uncertainty due to missing surface, form, injury, and H2H data, so we avoided any optimistic adjustments that might create a false edge.

Key factors

• • No external/in-play data available — conservative modeling only
• • Market-implied probability for away (1.54) is ~64.9%; we estimate true probability lower at 60%
• • Both sides produce negative EV under conservative true-probability estimates