P. latcenko/S. Lansere vs V. Allen/V. Turini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Markets price the home team at ~1.64 (≈61%); our conservative estimate of 58% yields no positive EV, so we recommend no bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Required decimal odds for value on the home side: ≥ 1.724
- • At current home odds (1.64) our model shows ~-0.049 ROI per unit staked
Pros
- + Market is favoring the home team, reflecting some advantage
- + Odds are not extreme; if additional positive info appears, value could emerge quickly
Cons
- - No independent data available to justify a higher win probability than the market
- - Current price (1.64) is below our conservative break-even (1.724)
Details
We compare the market prices to a conservative internal estimate. The book odds (home 1.64, away 2.14) imply the home pair has ~61.0% win chance after ignoring vig; given there is no available information on surface, recent form, injuries, or head-to-head, we apply a conservative true probability of 58% for the home team. At 58% true probability the break-even decimal price is ~1.724; the current home price (1.64) is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value. Because we lack corroborating data to justify a materially higher win probability than the market implies, we do not identify positive expected value at current prices and therefore recommend no side.
Key factors
- • Market-implied home probability (1/1.64 ≈ 61.0%)
- • No available information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H to justify divergence
- • Conservative true-probability estimate (58%) lower than market-implied break-even