PVISION vs Falcons
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify a small value on PVISION at 2.06 based on a conservative 50% true-win estimate vs market-normalized ~46.4%; the expected value is ≈3%.
Highlights
- • Current home odds 2.06 imply a normalized probability below our conservative estimate
- • Small positive EV (≈3%) but uncertainty is material due to lack of external data
Pros
- + Odds provide a modest buffer above our break-even threshold (min odds 2.00)
- + Conservative estimation limits overreach given no supplemental research
Cons
- - Edge is small (3% EV) and may be eroded by market movement or additional information
- - No specific roster/form/injury data available; higher uncertainty than typical value bets
Details
We compare market-implied probabilities to our conservative true estimate. The market raw implied probabilities are: PVISION 1/2.06 = 48.54% and Falcons 1/1.781 = 56.14% (sum = 104.69% overround). Normalizing gives PVISION ~46.38% and Falcons ~53.62%. With no external injury/form data available, we apply a conservative adjustment for home/team parity and contest variance at a major Dota 2 event and assign PVISION a true win probability of 50.0%. That exceeds the market-normalized PVISION probability (46.4%) and yields positive value at the current home price. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.50 * 2.06 - 1 = 0.03 (3% ROI). Given the limited information, this is a small, cautious edge rather than a large confidence gap.
Key factors
- • Market-implied normalized probability for PVISION is ~46.4% (possible underestimation)
- • Conservative home/venue and parity adjustment raises PVISION to 50% in our view
- • Market overround (~4.7%) leaves room for small edges when applying informed priors