Highlights

• • HEROIC shows a slight edge versus market-implied probability at current pricing
• • PVISION is heavily priced as favorite, increasing potential long-shot value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted price (small but real)
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces overconfidence risk

Cons

• - Edge is very small (~2%), sensitive to slight changes in true probability
• - No match-specific data available (form, roster changes, map pool), increasing uncertainty

Details

We see the market pricing PVISION as a heavy favorite at decimal 1.209 (implied ~82.8%) and HEROIC as a sizeable underdog at 4.25 (implied ~23.5%). With no external form/injury data available, we use a conservative tilt toward the underdog: we estimate HEROIC's true win probability at 24.0% (0.240), slightly above the market-implied 23.5%. At the available decimal 4.25 this produces a small positive edge (EV = 0.240 * 4.25 - 1 = +0.020), representing ~2.0% ROI on a 1-unit stake. Given the heavy vig baked into the favorite price and the high implied probability on PVISION, the value lies on HEROIC at the quoted price if one believes there is even a small chance they are better than the implied 23.5%. We remain conservative due to limited data and the narrowness of the edge.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors PVISION (implied ~82.8%) which inflates vig and creates potential underdog value
• • No available external form/injury/H2H data — we apply conservative assumptions and margin for uncertainty
• • Small difference between our conservative estimated probability (24.0%) and market-implied (23.53%) yields modest positive EV at 4.25