Highlights

• • HEROIC estimated true win probability: 30%
• • Current price 3.48 exceeds min required odds 3.333 for positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value (≈4.4% ROI) at current price
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces likelihood of overclaiming value

Cons

• - Information on form, roster status, and series format is missing—higher uncertainty
• - Edge is small and result variance is high in esports matches

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative, independent estimate. The market prices PVISION very short at 1.297 (implied ~77.2%) and HEROIC at 3.48 (implied ~28.7%). Given the absence of external intel and the higher variance in esports fixtures, we conservatively estimate HEROIC's true chance at 30% (PVISION 70%). At that estimate HEROIC at 3.48 offers positive edge: EV = 0.30 * 3.48 - 1 = +0.044 (4.4% ROI). The edge is modest but real versus the quoted price; PVISION shows no value versus our estimate (EV negative). We remain cautious because the information set is limited and match format/map pool is unknown, so this is a small, speculative value play.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities strongly favor PVISION (1.297 => ~77.2% implied)
• • Limited external information increases uncertainty; we use conservative estimates and allow extra probability for underdog variance
• • Underdogs in esports can realize upsets due to map draft and high variance, producing small exploitable edges