Highlights

• • Away at 3.6 implies 27.8% but we estimate ~32%
• • Fair price for Nigma by our estimate is ~3.125, market is higher

Pros

• + Clear positive EV by our conservative estimate
• + Bookmaker appears to overprice the heavy favorite given information gaps

Cons

• - Estimate made without match-specific data (form, maps, roster news)
• - If match is a BO1/short format variance increases but may also reduce our edge

Details

The market prices PVISION as a heavy favorite (1.281 -> implied 78.0%) and Nigma Galaxy as a clear underdog (3.6 -> implied 27.78%). With no additional injury/form/H2H data available we apply conservative assumptions and a small bookmaker-margin correction: we estimate Nigma Galaxy's true chance at 32.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 3.125, which is noticeably below the available 3.6, creating positive expected value. We avoid overstating precision given the data gap, but the gap between our conservative estimate and the market implies value on the away side. If new team-specific information (roster changes, map veto format, last-minute injuries) becomes available it should be re-priced.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (home 78.0% vs away 27.8%)
• • Conservative true-probability estimate for Nigma Galaxy at 32%
• • High uncertainty due to lack of recent team/form/injury data