Pablo Carreno Busta vs Elmer Moller
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Pablo Carreno Busta at 1.73, estimating his true win chance at 59.0% which yields ~2.1% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied prob home 57.8% vs our estimate 59.0%
- • Min fair odds 1.695; market offers 1.73
Pros
- + Modest positive expected value at current price
- + Experience and track record across surfaces favoring the home player
Cons
- - Edge is small — outcome variance in a single match is high
- - Limited recent-form differentiation and no H2H or injury detail in the provided research
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.73 => 57.8%) to our assessment of Pablo Carreno Busta's chance. Using the researched records, Carreno Busta is a more experienced tour-level player with proven results on both clay and hard courts; Elmer Moller has a higher aggregate win-rate overall but appears to have most success at lower tiers and is less proven against established tour opponents. Recent form for both shows some losses, but there are no clear injury flags in the provided data. We estimate Carreno Busta's true win probability at 59.0%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied 57.8% (1/1.73). At the current decimal price of 1.73 this produces a small positive expected value (EV = 0.59 * 1.73 - 1 ≈ 0.021), so the home side contains value by our model. We set the minimum fair decimal price required at 1.695 (1/0.59); current odds of 1.73 exceed that threshold.
Key factors
- • Carreno Busta's greater ATP-level experience and surface versatility (clay/hard)
- • Moller has a strong overall win-rate but likely from lower-tier events and less proven vs top opponents
- • Market-implied probability (57.8%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (59.0%), producing a small positive edge