Pablo Carreno Busta vs Holger Rune
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small positive value on Holger Rune at 1.41 based on superior season form and higher-level recent results; the edge is modest but present.
Highlights
- • Rune's season record and US Open participation indicate higher-level recent form
- • Fair odds (1.389) are slightly more favorable than market price (1.41), producing a small EV
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ 0.015 per unit)
- + Clearer recent exposure to top-level events (US Open) vs Carreno's recent challenger-level matches
Cons
- - Edge is small — outcome variance in a single tennis match is high
- - Limited granular data in the research (no H2H, fitness details), so estimate is conservative
Details
We view Holger Rune as the value side at the current market price. Research shows Rune with a stronger season win-loss (38-21) versus Pablo Carreno Busta (31-26) and recent participation in higher-level hard-court events (US Open) while Carreno's recent noted matches were at a challenger in Seville. The market price of 1.41 implies a 70.9% win probability; after accounting for surface exposure, recent event level, and the head-to-head absence in the provided data, we estimate Rune's true win probability at ~72%. At that probability the implied fair odds (1.389) are slightly better than the market price (1.41), producing a small positive edge. Given limited injury or H2H information in the research, we remain conservative in our probability but still find a positive expected value at the quoted away moneyline.
Key factors
- • Rune's stronger season win-loss record (38-21) versus Carreno's (31-26)
- • Rune recently competed at the US Open (hard-court), Carreno's recent noted matches were at a challenger in Seville
- • Market-implied probability (1.41 -> 70.9%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (72%)
- • No injuries or disqualifying conditions reported in the provided research