Highlights

• • Market implies 63.3% for Williams; our model 69%
• • Positive EV ≈ 9% at current odds

Pros

• + Strong recorded win-loss (17-6) across the season
• + Proven play on hard courts consistent with this event

Cons

• - No direct information on opponent Pablo Gomez in the provided research
• - Some recent mixed results in Williams' last matches introduce variance

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Cooper Williams (1/1.58 = 63.3%) to our estimated win probability of 69%. The provided data shows Williams with a strong overall record (17-6) and demonstrated play on hard courts, which supports a materially higher true probability than the market currently prices. With limited information on Pablo Gomez from the research, uncertainty exists, but the available profile of Williams and his hard-court results justify a constructive edge at 1.58 decimal odds. Therefore we find positive expected value backing the away player at the current price.

Key factors

• • Cooper Williams strong overall record (17-6) suggests high baseline win rate
• • Williams has documented hard-court experience, matching the surface
• • Market-implied probability (63.3%) is below our 69% estimate, creating value