Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small but positive value backing Thiago Agustin Tirante at 1.763 — our 60% win estimate yields ~5.8% ROI versus the market-implied 56.7%.
Highlights
- • Market implies 56.7% for Tirante; we estimate 60%
- • EV ≈ +0.058 (5.8% ROI) at current odds
Pros
- + Clear statistical edge in season wins and match experience for Tirante
- + Current odds are above our fair-price threshold (min required odds 1.667)
Cons
- - Limited surface-specialist data; grass form specifics are not detailed in the research
- - Challenger finals can produce variance; small-sample volatility could erode edge
Details
We estimate Thiago Agustin Tirante is the stronger player on balance for this Challenger final based on a substantially larger sample (88 matches, 54-33) and a higher win rate than Pablo Llamas Ruiz (38 matches, 20-18). The market price of 1.763 implies a win probability of ~56.7%; our modelled win probability for Tirante is 60%, which creates positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.60 * 1.763 - 1 = 0.0578 (≈5.8% ROI). Given both players have grass experience but Tirante’s heavier match load and better season record point to a moderate edge, the current away price offers value over our estimate.
Key factors
- • Tirante has a larger sample size and higher season win rate (54-33 vs 20-18)
- • Both players have grass experience, but Tirante’s consistency suggests a higher baseline probability
- • Market-implied probability (56.7%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), creating value