Highlights

• • Current market price 1.80 implies 55.6%; we estimate 58%
• • Small but real positive EV (≈0.044) given comparable conditions and form

Pros

• + Estimated probability exceeds implied market probability, producing positive EV
• + Recent challenger play on similar surfaces reduces surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Margins are slim — model edge is modest and sensitive to small errors in the probability estimate
• - Limited head-to-head or deep match-level stats available, increasing variance risk

Details

We estimate Pablo Llamas Ruiz is the value pick. His season win rate (20-18) is slightly stronger than Thiago Monteiro's (29-32) on the same recent circuit and both have recent clay challenger activity, which reduces surface uncertainty. The market prices Pablo at 1.80 (implied 55.6%); we assess his true win probability at 58.0% based on comparative form, fewer matches (less fatigue/inconsistency) and recent challenger results. At p=0.58 the fair decimal price is 1.724, so the current 1.80 offers positive expected value. We also consider that Monteiro has more matches this season (62) with a sub-.500 record and some volatility in recent results, which supports a slight edge to Llamas Ruiz rather than the market split.

Key factors

• • Llamas Ruiz has a marginally better season win rate (20-18 vs 29-32) implying higher baseline form
• • Both players recently contested clay challengers, reducing surface unknowns; Llamas' form on that circuit appears steadier
• • Market implies 55.6% for Llamas (1.80) but our model estimates 58%, creating a small positive edge