Highlights

• • Market favorite (Cooper) implied probability 64.5% vs our estimate 60%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV on Cooper: ≥1.667; current 1.549 is too short

Pros

• + Cooper has a stronger win-loss record and more hard-court experience that should translate better to grass than pure clay specialists
• + Market clearly favors Cooper, reflecting his form advantage

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass experience, which raises variance and makes estimates less reliable
• - Current prices are short for the favorite; no positive EV at available odds

Details

We estimate Cooper Williams is the stronger player on available form and surface translation (hard-court experience), but his market price (1.549 -> implied 64.5%) overstates his chances versus our modeled win probability of 60%. On a two-player market that implies Pablo Martinez Gomez has ~40% true chance, which is below his listed 41.5% implied by the 2.41 price, so neither side offers positive expected value. The grass surface is an unknown for both competitors and increases variance, so the margin for error in our probability estimate is larger than usual. To get a profitable play on Cooper at our 60% estimate we would need roughly 1.667 or better; current book prices are shorter and produce negative EV.

Key factors

• • Surface is grass — both players have little/no recorded grass experience, increasing uncertainty
• • Cooper Williams has the stronger overall record on relevant surfaces (hard) and is the market favorite
• • Book market implies 64.5% for Cooper; our estimate is 60% which yields negative EV at current odds