Highlights

• • Market implies 88% for Catry but we estimate ~78%; price looks too short.
• • Home longshot at 5.62 exceeds our required odds (≈4.545) for a profitable bet on our model.

Pros

• + Significant margin between market price and our estimated true probability creates positive EV
• + Both players' lack of grass data increases variance and the chance of an upset, benefiting the priced longshot

Cons

• - Trochu's documented form is poor and overall sample size is small, making our estimate uncertain
• - Small-sample variance and qualifier-level matches increase risk and result variance

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities (Away 1.134 => 88.2%, Home 5.62 => 17.8%) to our assessment. Research shows Robin Catry has a stronger overall record (26-19 vs 7-14) and more matches played, but both players' documented matches are on clay/hard and there is no grass track record for either—raising uncertainty. We estimate Catry is clearly the stronger player but not anywhere near the 88% certainty implied by 1.134 given the surface uncertainty and small-sample careers; we assign Catry ~78% and Trochu ~22%. At those probabilities the longshot Home price (5.62) offers positive expected value (EV = 0.22*5.62 - 1 ≈ +0.236). To breakeven on our 22% estimate you would need odds ≥ 4.545; the current 5.62 exceeds that, creating value on the home moneyline. We therefore recommend the home underdog as a value play, while noting high variance and model uncertainty because of limited grass data and small career samples.

Key factors

• • Both players lack recorded grass results in the provided data, increasing outcome uncertainty
• • Robin Catry has a substantially better career record and more match experience (26-19 vs 7-14)
• • Market prices heavily favor Catry (implied ~88%), creating potential longshot value if true win probability is lower