Pablo Carreno Busta vs Elmer Moeller

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 60.8%; our estimate: 62.0%
• • Positive expected value at current home odds, but edge is small

Pros

• + Tour-level experience advantage
• + Plays well on both surfaces relevant to Davis Cup settings

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2% ROI) — sensitive to model error
• - No provided profile or H2H data for Elmer Moeller increases uncertainty

Details

The market prices Pablo Carreno Busta at 1.645 (implied probability 60.8%). Based on his clear tour-level experience, ability to play on both clay and hard courts, and a recent season with a substantive match sample (31-26), we estimate his true win probability at 62.0%. That implies a small but positive edge versus the quoted price (EV = 0.62 * 1.645 - 1 = +0.0199, ~2.0% ROI). Uncertainty exists because the opponent (Elmer Moeller) is not profiled in the provided research and Carreno-Busta's recent record is modest, so the edge is conservative. Because expected_value > 0 at the current widely-available home price, we recommend the home side.

Key factors

• • Carreno-Busta's greater tour-level experience and higher profile
• • Ability to perform on both clay and hard surfaces (fits Davis Cup variability)
• • Current market implies 60.8% while our conservative model gives 62.0% (small edge)
• • Lack of opponent data increases uncertainty and caps confidence