Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting Pablo Llamas Ruiz at 1.775 — our model estimates a 60% win chance vs a 56.3% market-implied chance, yielding about a 6.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market price 1.775 implies 56.3% — we estimate 60%
- • Positive but modest EV: ~0.065 per unit
Pros
- + Better overall record and more matches this season in the provided data
- + Price offers a small but demonstrable edge versus our probability estimate
Cons
- - Margin is narrow — edge sensitive to small changes in our probability estimate
- - Limited detailed surface-specific form and no head-to-head data in the provided research
Details
We view Pablo Llamas Ruiz as the value side. The market prices him at 1.775 (implied probability 56.3%), which leaves a small margin relative to our read of the matchup. Llamas has a stronger overall win rate in the provided career data (20-18 vs 10-17 for Diaz Acosta) and more match volume this season, suggesting greater match sharpness and consistency. Both players show recent losses on clay in the provided notes, but the match is on grass; given Llamas has recorded play on grass in the season span and a better overall record, we estimate his true win probability above the market-implied level. Using a 60.0% estimated probability vs the available decimal 1.775 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.065 per 1 unit). The edge is modest but positive after accounting for the bookmaker margin, so we recommend backing the home player at current prices.
Key factors
- • Home (Llamas) superior season win-rate and greater match volume in provided data
- • Both players show recent poor clay results, but match is on grass where Llamas has recorded matches
- • Market-implied probability (56.3%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), creating a small edge