Highlights

• • Lopez career win rate ≈32% (10-21), recent form includes hard-court losses
• • Current odds imply Lopez win ≈73%—a large mismatch with available performance data

Pros

• + Available data on Lopez is recent and shows results on hard courts (same surface), so the estimate is grounded in direct observations
• + Clear pricing discrepancy (market vs. observed performance) simplifies value assessment

Cons

• - No information provided on Elizabeth Ivanov, increasing uncertainty about matchup dynamics
• - Sample size for Lopez (31 matches) and level variance (ITF vs Challenger) add noise to probability estimate

Details

We base our view on the available player profile for Paola Lopez: across 31 matches she is 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) and her recent form shows losses on hard courts at higher-level events. The market prices Lopez at 1.37 (implied win probability ≈73%), which is a large divergence from Lopez's observed win rate and recent form. We have no independent data on Elizabeth Ivanov in the provided research to justify the market's strong lean toward Lopez. Using a conservative true win probability for Lopez of 33% (aligned with her career/sample performance and recent results), the favorite is massively over-priced and offers negative expected value at the current home price. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at 1.37 and cannot confidently back the underdog without further information; no value exists at the given market prices.

Key factors

• • Paola Lopez career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) across 31 matches
• • Recent hard-court losses at higher-level events indicate weak form
• • Market implies ≈73% for Lopez (1.37), which is inconsistent with available performance data and no provided data for Ivanov