Paola Lopez vs Elizabeth Ivanov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market overprices Paola Lopez relative to her supplied form and career record; with no reliable data on Ivanov we cannot identify value at the quoted odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Lopez implied win chance at 1.599 is ~62.5% but our estimate is ~32%
- • At our estimated probability the favorite has strongly negative EV (~-48.8%)
Pros
- + Avoids taking a likely negative-expectation bet given Lopez's supplied form
- + Prevents exposure to a match where opponent data (Ivanov) is missing and uncertainty is high
Cons
- - If Ivanov is significantly weaker than implied by market, a missed value opportunity may exist (we lack data to confirm)
- - Market moves could create value later; currently no actionable edge
Details
We compare the market price (Paola Lopez ML 1.599, implied ~62.5%) to our assessment based on the supplied player data. Lopez's career record in the research is 10-21 with recent form showing mostly losses on hard courts; that profile implies a true win probability far below the market-implied 62.5%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 32% for Lopez (based on career win rate and recent results provided), the current favorite price offers negative expectation (EV = 0.32 * 1.599 - 1 ≈ -0.488). We lack any supplied performance or ranking data for Elizabeth Ivanov in the research, so we cannot confidently estimate her true probability; without reliable data on the opponent we cannot identify a value play on either side at the quoted prices. Therefore we do not recommend betting on this match at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Paola Lopez has a 10-21 career record and poor recent form in the supplied data
- • Market strongly favors Lopez (implied ~62.5%) which conflicts with her recent results
- • No performance, ranking, or recent-form data provided for Elizabeth Ivanov (high uncertainty)