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Paris J / Willis M vs Demoliner M / Rojer J-J play on 2026-02-04 11:30 in the ATP (tennis). Compare tennis odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: -3.5%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 1.82 (54.9%), Away: 1.85 (54.1%).
The global men’s professional tennis tour governed by the ATP.
Tournaments range from ATP 250 to Masters 1000 and Grand Slams.
Official: https://www.atptour.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Tennis_Professionals
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 1.82, Away: 1.85. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We find no value on either side given available information. The market prices are nearly balanced (Home 1.82 -> implied 54.95%; Away 1.85 -> implied 54.05%); without any player-specific form, H2H, surface, or injury data in the Research we must rely on a conservative estimate. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 53.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.887. At the current home price of 1.82 the expected ROI is negative (EV = 0.53 * 1.82 - 1 = -0.035), so the book is offering worse than our estimated fair price. To justify a back on the home side we would need at least 1.887; the away side (1.85) is similarly priced and offers no positive edge against our conservative distribution. Because the Research contains only tournament/rulebook and environmental references and no player-level evidence to justify a different true probability, we decline to recommend a side.
Summary: No value found: current prices (home 1.82, away 1.85) are below our conservative fair odds threshold (1.887 for the home pick), producing a small negative EV.