Highlights

• • Home implied prob: ~81.97% vs our estimate 78% → negative EV at 1.22
• • Away requires >25.3% true chance for value; our estimate ~22% → no value at 3.95

Pros

• + Conservative estimate protects against missing form/injury/surface information
• + Clear numeric comparison between implied and estimated probabilities

Cons

• - Lack of any external match-specific data increases uncertainty
• - If our conservative estimate is too low, there could be missed value on the favorite

Details

We estimate the favorite (Parker Fry) is the stronger player but, given no external form/surface/injury data, we apply a conservative true-win probability of 78% for the home player. The market-implied probability at decimal 1.22 is ~81.97%, meaning the market is pricing the favorite slightly higher than our conservative estimate. At our estimate the expected return on the home line (1.22) is negative (EV ≈ -0.048), and the implied requirement for value on the away player (decimal 3.95) is >25.3% while our away estimate is ~22%, also negative EV. Because neither side offers positive expected value versus our conservative probability model, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.22 → ~81.97%) exceeds our conservative true probability (78%)
• • No form, surface, injury, or head-to-head data available — increases uncertainty and justifies conservative estimates
• • Away price (3.95) requires >25.3% true probability for value; our away estimate (~22%) does not meet that threshold