Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.74) = 57.47%; our estimate = 56.0%
• • Required fair odds for home to be +EV = 1.786; current = 1.74

Pros

• + Market is clear and prices are standard — no obvious margin/overlay in absence of info
• + Conservative estimate avoids overbetting on uncertainty

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small differences between market-implied and estimated probabilities mean slight information shifts could change value

Details

We value-compared the market prices to a conservative estimated win probability. The book market shows Parker Fry (home) at 1.74 (implied probability 57.47%) and Hana Becirovic Novak (away) at 2.00 (implied probability 50.00%). With no external form, injury, surface, or H2H information available, we apply a conservative prior that the home player holds a small edge. We estimate Parker Fry's true win probability at 56.0% (0.56), which is below the market-implied 57.47%, so the home price (1.74) offers negative expected value: EV = 0.56 * 1.74 - 1 = -0.026. To be a positive EV bet at our probability the home side would need minimum decimal odds of 1.786, higher than the current 1.74. The away side would require a true probability >50% to be profitable at 2.00, which is inconsistent with our conservative assessment. Given the lack of corroborating information and the market pricing, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data on recent form, injuries, surface preference, or H2H available
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.74) is ~57.47%, slightly above our conservative estimate
• • Our conservative estimate (56%) implies min fair odds of ~1.786 for a positive EV
• • Away price (2.00) implies 50% — would require us to believe away is favorite, which we do not