Pasquale De Giorgio vs Andrea Colombo

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Colombo (1.391) despite a 2-6 record in provided data
• • Home at 2.75 crosses our EV threshold (min required odds 2.381)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current price (EV ~15.5%)
• + Colombo's documented poor form suggests potential overpricing by market

Cons

• - Very small sample of available match data increases uncertainty
• - No information on Pasquale De Giorgio or head-to-head to refine the model

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.75, Away 1.391 => market implies ~36.4% for the home, ~71.9% for the away) to our assessment of true chances. Andrea Colombo's available profile shows a 2-6 career mark across 8 matches with recent losses on both clay and hard, indicating poor recent form and a very small sample size. There is no information on injuries or head-to-head in the provided research, which increases uncertainty but also the chance of market overpricing. Given Colombo's weak record and the limited data set, we estimate Pasquale De Giorgio's true win probability at 42.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 36.4% for the home. At the current home price of 2.75 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.75 - 1 = 0.155). We therefore recommend backing the home player at the quoted 2.75 because the market appears to overestimate Colombo relative to the limited performance evidence.

Key factors

• • Andrea Colombo's recent record 2-6 (8 matches) indicates weak form
• • Market implies a heavy favourite (Away ~71.9%) despite limited data
• • No injuries or H2H available in research, increasing variance and market inefficiency