Highlights

• • Market implies ~75% for home; our conservative estimate is 38%
• • Fair decimal to show value would be ~2.632 or higher for Patric

Pros

• + Current market price clearly favors the home player, suggesting the market believes he’s significantly better
• + If additional reliable data on Ruocco showed a major weakness, the market price might be exploitable

Cons

• - Patric has only one recorded pro match and lost, so his true level is highly uncertain
• - No information on the opponent prevents a credible positive-value estimate for either side

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.33 => implied 75.2%) to our assessment based solely on the available data. Patric Prinoth has a single recorded pro match (0-1) on hard courts and no other performance, while we have no published information on Antonio Ruocco in the provided research. Given the extremely limited sample size for Prinoth and the complete absence of opponent data, we assign a conservative true win probability for Prinoth of 38%. At that probability the fair price would be ~2.632, so the current 1.33 line is strongly overestimating Prinoth and contains clear negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited sample for Patric Prinoth (1 pro match, 0-1)
• • No available performance/injury/H2H data for Antonio Ruocco in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability (75.2%) is far above our conservative estimated probability (38%)