Patricia Georgiana Goina vs Alexandra Shubladze
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away price (1.01) looks deeply mispriced relative to the available data; we estimate ~50% for each player, making the home moneyline 18.0 a very large-value but high-risk play.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~99% for away despite parity in provided profiles
- • A 50% true probability vs 18.0 decimal yields a large positive EV
Pros
- + Huge quantitative edge vs market price based on provided data
- + Simple thesis: parity between players -> heavy underdog has value
Cons
- - Very likely the market reflects late information not present in the research (injury/withdrawal) — a major tail risk
- - Small likelihood of bookmaker error reversal or odds correction if new info appears
Details
We find a clear value opportunity on the home player because the market prices the away player at an implied ~99% win probability (decimal 1.01) despite the available profiles showing near-identical records, surfaces, and recent form for both players. With no injury notes, head-to-head, or surface advantage in the provided research, we treat this as a symmetric matchup and estimate an intrinsic win probability near 50% for each player. At that estimated probability, the home price of 18.0 represents extreme mispricing and yields a large positive expected value. We also note the risk that the market may be reflecting late-breaking information not present in the research (e.g., injury, withdrawal), so while mathematically attractive this is a high-risk, high-reward situation.
Key factors
- • Profiles in research show near-identical records and surface experience (no clear favorite)
- • Market odds imply implausible 99% probability for away player with no supporting evidence
- • No injuries, H2H, or surface advantage documented in provided data — potential market error or missing info