Patricia Georgiana Goina vs Darya Velikova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on either side at current prices; the home favorite at 1.187 is priced far too short versus our ~52% win estimate, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~84% for home at 1.187, which is unsupported by the profiles
- • Estimated fair price for the home side would be near 1.92 (≈52% win probability)
Pros
- + Clear market signal (short favorite) so any value would be obvious if present
- + Both players have ample match data in the research to justify a conservative estimate
Cons
- - Research shows very similar records and no clear edge, so favoritism looks bookmaker-driven
- - Current favorite price yields substantially negative EV given our probability estimate
Details
We see both players with nearly identical career records and recent form in the supplied research, with no clear surface- or injury-based edge. The market has priced the home player at 1.187 (implied ~84%), which is far shorter than what the available information justifies. Given the parity in records (both 10-21) and no H2H or dominant form advantage in the research, we estimate the home win probability around 52%. At that true probability, the market price is deeply over-round and offers negative expected value; therefore we do not recommend backing the favorite at current prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical win-loss records and recent form in the provided research
- • No surface, injury, or head-to-head advantage is evident from the supplied data
- • Market prices (1.187) imply an implausibly high probability compared with available evidence