Highlights

• • Market implies ~56.1% for De Schepper; we estimate 58% → slight edge
• • Edge arises from experience/serve fit to grass and Brady's smaller sample/mixed form

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available price (≈3.3% ROI)
• + De Schepper's bigger sample and serve metrics fit grass conditions

Cons

• - Edge is small and could be erased by variance or unreported short-term factors
• - Brady's recent win rate and grass exposure introduce model uncertainty given limited data

Details

We find small positive value on Kenny De Schepper at the available prices. The market gives De Schepper 1.781 (implied ~56.1%); based on the research data we assign a higher true win probability (~58%) because De Schepper has substantially more match volume (58 vs 27), clear Challenger-level experience, and recent serve/ace indicators in the provided notes that suit grass. Patrick Brady has a smaller sample size and mixed recent results on lower-level events. Using our probability (0.58) versus the quoted decimal (1.781) yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.58 * 1.781 - 1 ≈ 0.033 (3.3% ROI). The edge is modest and depends on the weight we give De Schepper's experience and serve advantage on grass versus Brady's limited but respectable win rate.

Key factors

• • De Schepper's larger match sample and Challenger-level experience (58 matches vs 27)
• • Surface alignment: grass tends to favor big servers/ace producers — research notes higher ace/serve stats for De Schepper
• • Brady has a smaller dataset and mixed recent results at lower-tier events, increasing uncertainty in his advantage