Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 76.9% (1.30)
• • Our estimated probability: 82% → positive EV at current price

Pros

• + Clear experience and sample-size advantage for Maloney
• + Recent hard-court/main-draw exposure supports higher true win probability

Cons

• - Tennis upsets are common; single-match variance can reverse expectations
• - Limited direct H2H data and potential unknown short-term factors (fatigue/injury) increase uncertainty

Details

We assess value on Patrick Maloney (home). The market odds (1.30) imply a 76.9% win probability, while our assessment of Maloney's true win probability is higher at 82% given his larger sample size, stronger overall record (51-28 vs 9-7), and recent hard-court exposure including main-event play. Luca Pow is less experienced, has a much smaller match sample and mixed recent results at this venue level. Using our probability, the expected value at the current price is positive: EV = 0.82 * 1.30 - 1 = +0.066 (6.6% ROI). We therefore recommend the home moneyline at widely-available 1.30 prices.

Key factors

• • Maloney has a substantially larger match sample and better overall win-loss record
• • Both players are on hard courts where Maloney has recent main-draw exposure (US Open), suggesting comfort at this level
• • Pow's limited sample (17 matches) and mixed results at Winston-Salem level reduce his upside and increase variance