Patrick Zahraj vs Stan Wawrinka
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge backing Patrick Zahraj at 3.37 based on grass concerns for Wawrinka and Zahraj's relative activity; edge is marginal (EV ~1.1%) and comes with moderate uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Market-implied Wawrinka win ~74.5%; our estimate ~70%
- • Zahraj fair decimal ~3.333 vs market 3.37 -> slight value
Pros
- + Slight positive EV at current widely-available price
- + Surface/home profile favors Zahraj relatively more than market implies
Cons
- - Small margin of value — edge is tiny and sensitive to probability estimates
- - Limited specific matchup or H2H data; Wawrinka's experience could still prevail
Details
We see Stan Wawrinka heavily favored at 1.342 (implied ~74.5%) but the market appears to be over-pricing that favorite relative to surface and recent form. Wawrinka's provided profile shows limited/no grass history and a sub-.500 recent record (21-24), while Patrick Zahraj has more matches overall and recorded play on grass in his profile (43-36 career). On grass the matchup dynamics can compress favorites' edges, and giving Zahraj a 30.0% true win probability (Wawrinka 70.0%) produces a fair decimal of ~3.33 for Zahraj. The market price 3.37 slightly exceeds that fair price, yielding a small positive expected value. Given the limited data and surface uncertainty this is a low-margin, medium-risk value bet rather than a strong play.
Key factors
- • Surface mismatch: Wawrinka's profile shows little/no grass experience while match is on grass
- • Recent form and win-loss records: Zahraj has more matches and a better win total; Wawrinka is sub-.500 in listed span
- • Market pricing: Favorite is priced very short (1.342), creating a small value opportunity on the underdog