Patrick Zahraj vs Stanislas Wawrinka

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Zahraj = ~29.4%; our estimate = 33.0%
• • Estimated ROI on a 1-unit stake at current odds = +12.2%

Pros

• + Zahraj shows higher match activity and a stronger overall win record in the provided profiles
• + Current price (3.40) exceeds our minimum required odds (3.03) for a positive edge

Cons

• - Limited and somewhat noisy data; no head-to-head or explicit injury/fitness details provided
• - Wawrinka is priced as a clear favorite and the favorite bias could be justified by factors not in the dataset

Details

The market prices Wawrinka as a heavy favorite (1.30 -> implied ~76.9%) and Zahraj as a sizeable underdog (3.40 -> implied ~29.4%). Our read of the provided profiles gives Zahraj the edge in recent form volume and overall win rate (43-36 vs 21-24) and both players have recent hard-court activity at this event, reducing a surface bias. With no injury flags and no H2H provided, we weigh Zahraj's greater match sharpness and higher recent win percentage as meaningful, and treat the market as over-favoring Wawrinka. Translating that into probabilities, we estimate Zahraj's true win probability at 33.0% versus the market-implied 29.4%, which creates positive expected value at the listed 3.40 decimal price (EV = 0.33*3.40 - 1 = +0.122). We acknowledge elevated uncertainty from limited data and missing head-to-head, so our estimate is conservative.

Key factors

• • Zahraj has more match volume and a better overall win-loss (43-36) than Wawrinka (21-24) in the provided data
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches at this venue, reducing surface adjustment
• • Market heavily favors Wawrinka; current price for Zahraj (3.40) appears to include value versus our probability estimate