Highlights

• • Estimated away probability (35.4%) > market-implied (32.1%)
• • Positive EV at current decimal odds 3.12 (~+0.104)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV based on available win-rate data
• + Market underestimates the away side relative to our conservative baseline

Cons

• - No direct data on Luca Pow or head-to-head; estimate derived as complement of Maloney win rate
• - Lack of granular grass-only performance and recent-form specifics increases uncertainty

Details

We base our model on the only available player performance data: Patrick Maloney has a 51-28 career record (51 wins in 79 matches = 0.646 win rate) and has played grass among other surfaces. With no direct data for Luca Pow provided, we infer Luca's chance as the complement (1 - Maloney win probability = 0.354). The market decimal price for the away side is 3.12 (implied probability 0.321). Our estimated true probability for the away win (0.354) exceeds the market-implied probability, producing positive expected value. At 3.12 the EV = 0.354*3.12 - 1 = +0.104 (about +10.4% ROI). Key uncertainties: we lack head-to-head, recent form detail for Pow, and granular grass-specific win rates, so our estimate leans on Maloney’s overall win rate and the confirmed grass experience.

Key factors

• • Maloney career win rate 51/79 (~64.6%) used as baseline
• • Maloney has grass experience noted in profile
• • Market away implied probability (1/3.12 = 0.321) is below our estimated away probability (0.354)