Patrick Zahraj vs Cannon Kingsley
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Zahraj looks like a narrow favorite but 1.60 implies a bigger edge than the evidence supports, so we avoid betting either side.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Zahraj (62.5%) exceeds our estimate (58%).
- • Insufficient, inconsistent stats and mixed recent form prevent confidence in a Cannon Kingsley upset-price play.
Pros
- + Zahraj has marginally better overall win rate and more match experience.
- + Both players are accustomed to hard courts, so surface is not a major unknown.
Cons
- - Current moneyline overprices the favorite relative to our probability estimate (no positive EV).
- - Provided match statistics contain inconsistencies, reducing confidence in any large edge assessment.
Details
We estimate Patrick Zahraj to be the marginal favorite based on a slightly better overall record (43-36 vs 23-21) and both players having match experience on hard courts, but the current moneyline (1.60, implied 62.5%) overstates his edge versus our read of form and sample data. Recent results for both players are mixed and the supplied match-level stats appear inconsistent, which reduces confidence in a large edge for either side. Conservatively we place Zahraj's true win probability at ~58.0%, below the ~62.5% implied by 1.60, producing a negative expected value at the available price. Cannon Kingsley could be undervalued if we had stronger evidence of a form swing, but current data does not support raising his true probability above the 44.8% break-even threshold for his 2.23 price. Therefore we do not recommend a side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Zahraj has a slightly better overall record and more match volume (43-36 vs 23-21)
- • Both players have recent hard-court matches; form is mixed for each with no clear momentum
- • Quoted statistics in the research appear inconsistent, lowering confidence in a large edge and increasing model uncertainty