Paula Cembranos vs Madhurima Sawant

Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Paula: ~74% vs our estimate ~55%
• • Fair decimal odds needed for value on Paula: ≥ 1.818 (market is 1.346)

Pros

• + Paula is listed as home, which can provide a small advantage in some tournaments
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Profiles and recent results provided show very similar records — no clear edge
• - Market heavily favors the home player, leaving no positive EV at available prices

Details

The market makes Paula Cembranos a heavy favorite at decimal 1.346 (implied probability ~74%). Our assessment, based on nearly identical career records (both 10-21), shared surface experience (clay), and no clear form or injury edge in the supplied data, assigns Paula a realistic win probability around 55%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.818, well above the available 1.346, so there is no positive expected value on the favorite. With limited distinguishing information and symmetric profiles, we do not find value on either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and match counts in the provided data
• • Both have clay experience; no clear surface advantage is apparent from the supplied profiles
• • Current market heavily favors the home player (implied ~74%), which exceeds our estimated probability