Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Gabriel Schenekenberg

Highlights

• • Market implies Paulo is almost certain (92.6%), which looks overstated versus available performance data
• • Our model gives Paulo ~85% win probability — not enough to make 1.08 a value price

Pros

• + Large experience gap strongly favors the home player
• + Both players have clay experience which reduces a surface-based upset likelihood

Cons

• - Paulo's historical win-rate and recent losses mean he is not overwhelmingly dominant
• - Gabriel's very small sample size creates uncertainty — possible unknowns that could slightly shift true probability

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.08 => implied 92.59%) to our assessment. Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos has far more match experience (61 matches) versus Gabriel Schenekenberg's extremely small sample (3 matches), which favors Paulo, but Paulo's overall win-rate (~51%) and recent losses reduce confidence that his true win probability is as extreme as the market implies. We estimate Paulo's true probability at ~85% given experience gap, likely higher class/consistency versus an inexperienced opponent, and both players having clay exposure; however the market is pricing Paulo at ~92.6% which requires a >92.6% true probability to be profitable at the current 1.08 price. Plugging our estimate into EV: 0.85 * 1.08 - 1 = -0.082 (negative), so there is no value at the posted odds. To be profitable you'd need decimal odds >= 1.176 for our 85% estimate. Given the negative EV at current prices and limited additional evidence to push our probability above ~93%, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Paulo has 61 matches vs Gabriel's 3, favoring Paulo in match toughness and handling pressure
• • Recent form and win-rate: Paulo's overall record ~31-30 and recent losses reduce likelihood he's a >92% favorite
• • Small sample/incomplete data on Gabriel introduces uncertainty; no H2H available and surface/venue details are not definitive