Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Igor Marcondes

Highlights

• • Market implies 34.8% for Paulo; we estimate 38%
• • Current odds (2.87) are above our min required (2.632) so positive EV exists

Pros

• + Baseline career win-rate (~50.8%) supports a higher true probability than market implies
• + Current price significantly above break-even for our estimate

Cons

• - Recent results include losses in July/August 2025 — reason to be conservative
• - Limited information on the opponent and match conditions increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (1/2.87 = 34.8%) to our assessed true chance. Paulo's career record is 31-30 (~50.8% wins) which provides a baseline well above the market's valuation; recent results show losses in July/August 2025 but do not erase his overall competitiveness. Given the limited opponent information and no confirmed injury news, we conservatively downgrade his baseline but still estimate a materially higher win probability (38%) than the market implies (34.8%). At our estimated probability, the break-even decimal odds are ~2.632, and the current market price of 2.87 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side as a value play because the current odds exceed our minimum required odds for a profitable long-term edge.

Key factors

• • Career win-loss baseline 31-30 (~50.8%) anchors Paulo as a capable competitor
• • Recent form shows losses in summer 2025 but not a clear collapse, so we apply a modest downgrade
• • Market-implied probability for Paulo (34.8%) is lower than our assessed 38% — creates value opportunity
• • Limited opponent/injury/H2H information increases model uncertainty but also means market may be overpricing the favorite