Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Paulo at 3.00 because his true win probability is higher than the market implies (estimated 38%), producing ~14% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market implies 33.3% for Paulo; we estimate 38%
- • Positive EV at current home price (3.00)
Pros
- + Larger career sample for Paulo reduces uncertainty relative to Igor
- + Current price (3.00) exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.632) — clear mathematical edge
Cons
- - Igor’s win rate is materially higher, indicating he is a legitimate favorite
- - Limited contextual data (no injury/H2H details) increases variance and risk
Details
Market prices make Igor a strong favorite at 1.35 (implied 74.1%) while Paulo is priced at 3.00 (implied 33.3%). We judge the market overstates Igor's win probability because his superior win percentage (18-8) comes from a much smaller sample (26 matches) compared with Paulo's larger experience (61 matches). Both players have results on clay and hard, and recent form shows inconsistent results for both, which increases upset chance. Balancing Paulo's greater match exposure and the limited data for Igor, we estimate Paulo's true win probability at 38%, which requires fair decimal odds of 2.632. At the offered 3.00 there is positive expected value (EV = 0.38*3.00 - 1 = +0.14), so we recommend backing the home player at current prices.
Key factors
- • Paulo has substantially more match experience (61 matches) than Igor (26), reducing variance risk in our view
- • Igor's higher win rate is from a smaller sample, which can inflate market confidence
- • Both players have results on clay and hard; surface doesn’t heavily favor either based on available data
- • Recent form is inconsistent for both, raising upset potential and value in the underdog price