Highlights

• • Home implied probability 63.4% vs our estimate 60.5% → negative EV
• • Underdog price (2.27) implies 44.1% which exceeds our underdog win estimate (~39.5%)

Pros

• + Paulo has greater experience and more matches across surfaces
• + Julian’s small sample size and losing record lower his baseline expectancy

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses, so form is uncertain
• - No head-to-head or specific event/surface edge detailed in the supplied data

Details

We estimate Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos has the clear experience and larger match sample (31-30 across 61 matches, plays both clay and hard) while Julian Cundom has a smaller sample (5-8 across 13 matches, primarily clay). The market prices show Paulo as the favorite at 1.578 (implied probability 63.4%) and Julian at 2.27 (implied 44.1%), but the market contains vig (sum >100%). Based on comparative records, surface exposure, and recent form (both showing recent losses but Paulo has far greater volume and a marginally better career win rate), we estimate Paulo's true win probability at 60.5% (0.605). At the quoted home price 1.578 our estimated EV = 0.605*1.578 - 1 = -0.047 (negative), so there is no positive expected value on the favorite. The away player’s implied probability (44.1%) exceeds our rough counter-estimate for his win chance (~39.5%), so there is also no value on the underdog at 2.27. Therefore we do not recommend taking a side at these prices.

Key factors

• • Paulo has much larger match sample (61 matches) and a near‑50% career win rate vs Julian's small sample (13 matches) and lower win rate
• • Both players show recent losses, reducing confidence in form-based upside
• • Market prices imply a slightly higher probability for Paulo (63.4%) than our estimate (60.5%), leaving no value at current odds