Highlights

• • Current odds (3.75) give Kotov an implied 26.7% chance — we estimate ~40%
• • EV on Kotov at these odds is strongly positive (0.50) based on the provided match data

Pros

• + Significant upside compared with market-implied probability
• + Both players’ recent results are weak, which caps the favorite’s edge

Cons

• - Overall sample data is limited and both players have subpar recent records
• - No head-to-head or injury detail provided — uncertainty remains

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market price (Pavel Kotov 3.75, implied probability 26.7%) and what we estimate his true chance to win. Using the provided career records (Kotov 10-25 = 28.6% raw win rate; Tabilo 14-25 = 35.9% raw win rate) and normalizing those rates produces a baseline advantage for Tabilo but not a blowout. After accounting for similar recent form (both players showing multiple recent losses on hard and other surfaces) and discounting structural biases, we estimate Kotov's true win probability at 40%. At current odds of 3.75 this implies EV = 0.40 * 3.75 - 1 = +0.50 (50% ROI on a 1-unit bet). The market therefore appears to be overestimating Tabilo (implied 80%) relative to the available evidence, making Kotov a value underdog at 3.75.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (Kotov 26.7%) is far lower than our estimated true chance (40%)
• • Career win-rate comparison shows only a modest advantage for Tabilo, not an 80% likelihood
• • Both players show recent losing form on hard surfaces, reducing the favorite's edge