Highlights

• • Market implies Pavlos ~43.9% but we estimate ~48% true chance
• • Positive EV at current price: ~0.094 (9.4% ROI)

Pros

• + Pavlos's greater experience and higher-level match play suggest he's underrated by simple W-L percentages
• + Available price (2.28) offers a clear mathematical edge versus our probability model

Cons

• - Both players show inconsistent recent form and small sample sizes reduce confidence
• - Limited direct data on clay-form and H2H increases variance — outcome remains uncertain

Details

The market strongly favours Lucca (implied win probability ~63.2% at 1.581) while Pavlos is available at 2.28 (implied ~43.9%). On raw win-rate numbers both players have similar career-level win rates (~32–33%), but Pavlos has a longer career and more matches at higher levels, which suggests his underlying quality is likely understated by raw W-L alone. Given the clay surface and Lucca's limited pro sample, we estimate Pavlos's true chance higher than the market-implied 43.9%. At our estimated true probability of 48.0% Pavlos represents positive expected value vs the current price of 2.28 (EV = 0.48*2.28 - 1 = 0.0944 or ~9.4% ROI).

Key factors

• • Experience advantage: Pavlos has a longer career and more matches at higher levels, implying higher underlying ability
• • Small-sample variability: Lucca's limited pro matches (mostly clay) inflate uncertainty and may lead the market to overreact
• • Surface: clay is neutral-to-slightly favorable to Lucca's background, but not enough to offset Pavlos's experience edge