Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Marc Ros Mesas

Highlights

• • Implied probability ~89.2% vs our estimated ~60%
• • Required fair odds (≥1.667) are far above available price (1.121)

Pros

• + Pavlos has clay experience which could be relevant at this event
• + Home/favorite designation suggests tournament seeding advantage (but not quantified here)

Cons

• - Career and listed recent form in the provided research is weak (16-32 record, recent losses)
• - Current market price implies near-certainty that is not supported by the supplied data

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Pavlos Tsitsipas (1/1.121 = 0.892, ~89.2%) to our estimate of his true chance to win. The research shows a career win-rate of 16-32 (≈33%) and generally weak recent form in the provided match list, although he has experience on clay. With no information on Marc Ros Mesas, uncertainty is high; even giving Pavlos the benefit of the doubt for a favorable matchup at this ITF event, a realistic true probability is much lower than the implied 89%. Using a conservative true probability of 60% produces a required fair price of 1.667; the current price of 1.121 offers strong negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.327 per unit). Therefore there is no value on the heavy favorite at current quotes.

Key factors

• • Career record in research: 16-32 indicates sub-50% baseline win rate
• • Recent listed matches show multiple losses and weak form
• • Market implied probability (≈89%) is far higher than any realistic estimate given the data
• • Surface: clay is within his experience but not shown to materially boost win-rate in the provided profile
• • Opponent details are absent, increasing uncertainty and lowering confidence in market edge